Quote Originally Posted by DarthEnderX View Post
Which is going to be hilarious if they succeed, because they're just going to get their asses beat if they invade.
It's kind of irrelevant what form or ratio of success the incident would have. They just need to have any kind of violent event to rally their own people and allies. Such things have happened in RL, for example in the beginning of the WW2. It's to gain a casus belli for official records and to justify the war to the citizens.