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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6034873.stm
Holy shit. The entire international community is gonna start ripping NK a new one. Not to mention that they're giving Japan the perfect reason to remiliterise. Hell not even China will be able to defend them now.
It's a strange country. The people are starving and they invest their meager resources in a nuclear weapons program. However, I don't really see a war starting over there, unless started by the apocalyptic goverment of North Korea itself. Still, I can't see how this would help them in any possible way. Surely other countries won't give them more food aid because they completed the first crucial phase of the nuke program. Quite the contrary.
The ones suffering most as a consequence will be the brainwashed, poor population of that country. It's a negative miracle of an iron fist totalitarism that they haven't overthrown their own goverment already.
In all respect I would have to disagree. North Korea would not strike first unless facing an imminent attack upon them. The ideology of the North Korean government is what they call "Juche" and to summarize it is basically self-reliance. The main reason for North Korea perusing nuclear weapons is as a deterrent from an attack upon them. Kim Jong-il is fearful of losing his power to an invasion by the United States and the security of his dictatorship has been an upmost concern in previous negotiations. However, North Korea has been very willing to sell its technology to anyone with enough money and that fact would very likely the reason if any that a war is started.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kraco
Perhaps you are right. I don't consider that technology trade a reason big enough to risk a war against a nuke dictatorship, but I'm not sure if I did believe even in this latest war against Iraq years ago. I guess the threshold of starting a war is in reality much lower than I like to think.
Not to fear my friends, after collaborating with my pal the conspiricy nut we (really him, but he wouldn't shut up so I had to keep listening) have come to this conclusion. North Korea is apparently acting as the proxy of China, who is looking to pull a Japanese Empire and conquer Asia. With a nuclear North Korea and it's 1.2 million man army as it's puppet China could launch attacks against South Korea to push the US out and gain control of the SK economy and resources (smart people). Once this is done, they could go after Taiwan and perhaps start moving on other Southeast Asian countries. This would either be before or after bombing Japan in one way or another and securing it's either surrender or destruction. Once all the technological power houses are under it's control a move into India was contemplated (this is where I really started begging him to leave me alone as invading India is about as smart as invading Russia in my opinion). In all this I told him that the US would be hard pressed to get the people behind another war off on some foriegn shores that didn't directly affect their daily lives. Because of this, as ong as US troops weren't targeted (another massive whole in this plot) China and North Korea could likely conquer much of East Asia with little resistance. He also brought up Iran's very friendly ties with China when I offered that the Muslim world wouldn't enjoy another superpower right on their doorsteps. We/He came to the conclusion that the US wouldn't get involved until it really started affecting out lives, as no more nice shirts or Dockers pants would come be coming out of Vietnam or Cambodia.
Now obviously this theory is pretty insane and unlikely, but hey who knows. North Korea gets a lot of aid from China, and the Chinese were informed about the test before it occured, maybe the reason they aren't as up in arms as others think they should be is b/c they have an ulterior motive...
Interesting theory posted above. I think the real fear here, for China, Russia, and the US, is the threat of a militarized, potentially nuclear Japan...
I can't understand how Kim Jong Il thinks either. Anyway, these 2 cartoons cracked me up:
http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/5258/ollewi7.jpg
http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/6307/breenlb8.gif
oh great... didn't they moms teach them not to play with explosive?!
What are you talking about? A remillitarized Japan poses no threat to the US, Russia, or China. The only country you mentioned that would have an issue with that would be China due to Japan's actions durin WWII, but no matter how much Japan builds up its military it still wouldn't be able to pose a theat to China in any way. As for the US, a remilitarizd Japan would be extremely beneficial to the US in the long run. Also if Japan ever wanted to develop nukes it would be in direct response to NK's actions so if China doesn't want that to happen they need to exert some pressure on NK very quicklyQuote:
Originally Posted by SK
The media and the countries rulers dont really care about North Korea since there is nothing to gain. Iran has everybodies attention since it has oil. Japan and SK will be scared of NK, but China wont really care since both states are communist. They will be allies rather than enemies.
This caricature shows my opinion.
[img=http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/7946/contenttodayscartoonsuclickiv9.th.gif]
oh well... i just hope Canada doesn't go dumb like that... (are we the only sane country left or something?!)
Who knows, look how we are doing in Afghanistan. Maybe, we will have to send our soldiers there for peace keeping....
Dont forget that with Harper, everything is possible.....
i'm not worried about DPRK as a real military threat. They know they'd get their shit pushed in if it came down to a real war. And china wouldn't even intervene. Unless they're provoked, they shouldn't be much more than a punkass kid clamoring for attention... with nukes...
As for the China idea: I see how some people might buy into it, but I don't. Maintaining a hazard like the DPRK is alot of work and risk, and China seems to be quite content to just let their natural growth and capitalism-acceptance propel them into a bigger role worldwide. They really don't need a "rogue dog" under their command.
Don't think China is too interested in conquering other nations. Imo, their happy growing and enjoying the wealth that they slowly are having now. If the are imperialistic, Taiwan would have been theirs a long time ago. Seems their priorities have change. Their just acting tough, but all they truly care now is money money money.
I disagree. My points are outlined as follows:Quote:
Originally Posted by mr3vi1m0nk3y
A) Japan is naturally imperialistic (Opinion based on historic fact)
B) Japan could have one of the strongest militaries in the world, quickly, if increased military expenditure (Japan currently spends 1% of economy on military)
C) Japan could easily obtain nuclear technology at the level of the United States and Russia which China and North Korea do not have
D) Japan re militarized with nuclear technology could again conquer Korea and parts of China (I doubt they'd go far beyond Korea, but they could easily bully China and control the region) And Russia would be hard pressed to intervene at this point in their history
E) A nuclear remilitarized Japan is competition for resources with the US and its allies which makes them a threat, not a benefit
F) China would not go as far as military action against North Korea (which is the only response that would stop NK at this point) to stop a Japan remilitarization SCENARIO, Japan could be researching right now and drawing plans (if they have any sense they are) which means it is too late
Stoopider:
Don't underestimate the US role in Taiwan. China hasn't taken Taiwan already because they are still afraid of the possible US response. The US military presense in the area is very strong, with the base in Japan and 3 aircraft carriers in the area, in addition to nuclear submarines. Money has to go somewhere, in that case in obtaining MORE...
Ummm...I'm going to have to disagree with you there SK. You can't just snap your fingers and create a world class military...unless your Napolean, but that's beside the point...anyway, Japan has plenty of technology, but how much military technology have they come up with recently. Unless they plan to steal Google's Gundam (trust me they ARE building one) they'd be hard pressed to become a conquring empire overnight.
Also good nuclear tech is not easy at all, it would take time and probably plenty of tests to refine the process to US ans Russian standards. Unless they just ask for/steal the technology from the US or Russia it would take quite some time to get where we are.
If they increased their military expenditure to 20% they would have a world class military in 5 years, nuclear technology in 10. We are talking about a people who were able to manufacture guns (and improve them) from only a single model...Quote:
Originally Posted by Yukimura
What you are saying is true SK, but NK has a nuclear bomb NOW, and not in 5 or 10 years so Japan can't really do anything about it currently.
What really is funny is the Sanctions. The Sanctions wont do anything to NK. I mean NK is a communist country, so the country doesnt really import or export. That means that the sanction wont affect it at all. The UN better think of something better to stop NK of going even crazier.
Ummm, North Korea gets massive amounts of food aid from other countries, especially China. Also, Japan apparently announced that they are barring all North Korean ships from their ports, banning all of their products, and denying theier citzens entry into Japan except under special conditions. I'm not sure how much North Korea does export, but if the Japanese are bothering to put a halt to their shipping they must think it will mean something.
Disagree. Don't think China gives a too hoot about America. If they go to invade Taiwan, it's doubtful America would throw all especially bringing nuclear weapons into the picture going all out for little Taiwan. They'll just have a very stern warning and economic sanctions.Quote:
Originally Posted by SK
Economic sanctions by the US would ruin China, and vice versa causing the worlds economy into a depression. Taiwan generates alot of business for both ends as well, with Taiwanese investors now flooding into China's coastal cities.
But the discussion about Taiwan and China is for another thread. This thread is about Korea.
North Korea isn't an effecient communist country by any means. Their people would die of hunger without international aid.Quote:
Originally Posted by gr3atfull
America used to bribe North Korea by giving them food and money so that they don't build weapons and harass other countries. Smart eh?
Yeah. In the news some UN aid division official was hoping the sanctions won't stop the food aid. It's the sad fact, like it was with Iraq, that it's only the ordinary people who will suffer if the food stops coming in. The leaders and the oppression army will always have plenty to eat. And you can bet the internal propaganda machinery in North Korea will feed lies to the citizens telling how the evil foreign countries prevent food from coming in just out of spite.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoopider
A. Natrualy Imperialistc? Maybe in 1940's, nearly 60 years have gone by. To prejudge an entire nations behavior based soley on history is naive.Quote:
Originally Posted by SK
B. Agreed. Most, if not all of the electronic parts the US uses for its weapons systems come from Japan. The F-22 Raptor, the US's new 5th gen strike fighters, new avionics system comes right from Japan. Not only would Japan be able to quickly militarize using its domestic industry the US would be happy to sell it its own tech as its doing now with the F-22 and the F-35.
C. Again true. The entire country is run on nuclear power so there is no shortage of fissionable material and with their ability with robotics and fine manufacturing they could easily build nuclear weapons very easily.
D. I totally disagree with you here. Japan may be entering a new nationalistic period, but remilitarizing and going on to pull the same shit they did pre-WWII isn't going to happen. Japan is looking for a permenent seat on the Security Council in the UN and looking to impove its standing on the international stage. Invading other countries with the intent to occupy and colonize them hurt both of those causes. And Japan "bullying" China is impossible. No matter how much Japan builds up its military it wouldn't be able to do much to China. You have to remember that China has the world's largest army at 1,700,000 the worlds 2nd largest air force and navy at 3,520 and 230,000 respectivly. Japan bullying China is out of the question uless they develop working Gundams ;)
E. Again no, what resources would they be competing for? Oil? Remiliterizing would increase Japan's need for it but they aren't hostile with Venezuela or the OPEC nations like the US is so that wouldn't be a problem. Neither would nuclear material for the reasons stated in C and that the US has its own large deposits of Uranium.
F. Maybe no, maybe yes. Its in China's best interest that a communist power stay in control of NK. They wouldn't want Korea to be united under a democratic regime with US troops right on the border or they're own citizens deciding its time for a regime chage of their own, and they sure as hell don't want any poor NK refugees pouring across their border. But they may decide that Kim Jong Ill isn't the right person to head that communist regime. If China does invade NK to remove Kim then they look good to the US and the rest of the world while keeping the status quo in place and securing more influence in NK mostly among the poor.
That and the international backlash of invading Taiwan with no provocation or reason other then for "national unity" looks really bad. Don't underestimate China's military forces if they did decide to invade Taiwan it would be costly but they could do it US forces or not.Quote:
Stoopider:
Don't underestimate the US role in Taiwan. China hasn't taken Taiwan already because they are still afraid of the possible US response. The US military presense in the area is very strong, with the base in Japan and 3 aircraft carriers in the area, in addition to nuclear submarines. Money has to go somewhere, in that case in obtaining MORE...
On the saturday newspaper, I read that NK exports 1,3 billion $ and import 3.3 billion$. And NK's top partner is China.Quote:
Originally Posted by gr3atfull
I guess sanctions might work..... and NK is not a really a communist country after all.....
If this is true, then NK is doing a super shitty job distributing that wealth to its populace. Bastards.Quote:
Originally Posted by gr3atfull
Well annual military spending is about $5 billion USD for NK. so thats possibly where it's all going.
As well looking at their economy it looks to be a very shitty job indeed
China does give a hoot about America, considering they have the largest nuclear arsenals in the world. And the world's biggest conventional army may sound good, but China still needs to improve its navy and airforce. the US has a near worldwide monopoly on the number of nuclear carriers in existence, not to mention nuclear submarines. The nukes are the deterrent.Quote:
Disagree. Don't think China gives a too hoot about America. If they go to invade Taiwan, it's doubtful America would throw all especially bringing nuclear weapons into the picture going all out for little Taiwan. They'll just have a very stern warning and economic sanctions.
Economic sanctions by the US would ruin China, and vice versa causing the worlds economy into a depression. Taiwan generates alot of business for both ends as well, with Taiwanese investors now flooding into China's coastal cities.
But the discussion about Taiwan and China is for another thread. This thread is about Korea.
What is bad however, is that right now, thanks to bush's cowboy diplomacy, With america's army stretched out in Iraq and Afganistan, the U.S has less power than it does in the region, since China knows the U.S won't be able to act as quickly as it used to with its forces tied down else where.
Sanctions would work, its just that China would never allow it, or at this point, they won't allow it to the point where its effective. They aren't prepared to deal with millions of starving korean refugees at their borders. Korea right now imports most of its food from China, along with oil and supplies. Korea does export some things though, like decrepit bicycles. hehe, i saw this image of a ton of these things on a cargo ship at anchor in Japan, because Japan wouldn't let them trade anymore. =/Quote:
Originally Posted by gr3atfull
What really is funny is the Sanctions. The Sanctions wont do anything to NK. I mean NK is a communist country, so the country doesnt really import or export.
This is the 21st Century, and Japan is a market-democracy now, not an imperalist monarchy. Besides, even with nuclear weapons, Japan is hard pressed to conquer a large country such as korea. Why would they do so against a fellow democracy? (South of course), when China is off shore with the world's largest army? There may be an arms race in the worst case scenario, but not a full scale imperalist war, by Japan Nonetheless, most of Japan's largest multi-national companies wouldn't stand for it.Quote:
Japan re militarized with nuclear technology could again conquer Korea and parts of China (I doubt they'd go far beyond Korea, but they could easily bully China and control the region) And Russia would be hard pressed to intervene at this point in their history
A. They have continually had wars with Korea.Quote:
Originally Posted by mr3vi1m0nk3y
D. I wasn't saying they will start conquering Korea again etc etc, I think they would use their new military mainly as a deterrent to China and North Korea. What I am saying is that the wounds from WWII are still fresh, especially for China, and they do not want a militarized Japan because the possibility is always there. This would cause China to want to improve their military. This is exactly what the US is afraid of, an arms race in the region which could eventually lead to war. BTW, man power doesn't matter when say, American missiles can carry 8 nuclear warheads and be launched from submarines, while China has no where near that missile technology.
E. Nations are ALWAYS competing for resources...
F. Yep
@SK
I'm not familiar with any wars between Japan and Korea other then the occupation of the Korea during WWII. There have been a few disputes with Korea and China over territory but nothing has involved military action. And yes manpower is still the main deciding factor in wars. You can have all the fancy military tech you want, but if you want to keep the real estate you win you need boots on the ground to hold it. No advancements in tech will ever change that. Besides nuclear weapons will never be used in tradidtional nation to nation warfare because of mutual self-destruction. No one wants this, its the only reason why the Cold War stayed cold. FYI China has ICBM's capable of reaching US just like we have ICBM's capable of reaching them. China's weapons tech is just as good as the US, so underestimating them would be a serious mistake.
@gr3atfull
Sanctions would work, it just depends on what your restricting. Cutting of basic goods such as food wouldn't hurt the KIm's power base. Cutting off luxury good like the cognac and wine KIm drinks with his caviar every night, or the fancy cars that Kim uses as gifts to his generals and bodyguards will damage his power base. While we wouldn't be able to stop all these goods from getting to NK, if we stop most of them Kim loses one of the main ways of keeping the military on his side. If we can manage to completly cut them off for long enough they might decide to take Kim out just to get their lifestyle back. Once you get used to living so richly its suck to have it suddenly cut off.
@ DeathscytheVII:
Of course sanctions imposed by the UN wouldn't work because of China. I have read that China-NK export/import is about 1.6 Billion $. That's a lot. It's like buying youtube.
Japan has tried to invade Korea before WWII.Quote:
Originally Posted by mr3vi1m0nk3y
Clausewitz says the enemy submits to your will using overwhelming force, I am just following his doctrine. In our times, nuclear strikes are the best overwhelming force avaliable.
There is no mutual self destruction scenario with China because they do not have the missile system avaliable to respond fast enough to US missiles. China does not have nuclear missile technology at the same level as the US' this is a known fact. They only have around 25 missiles which can only carry a single warhead each and are very outdated (obviously.) US missiles can carry up to 8 warheads each and are currently deployed with 6 warheads each. In contrast with the new Russian missiles which are capable of diverting manuevers the Chinese missiles are not which means they can be shot down especially with the new anti missile laser systems in the United States.
breaking news: South Korea says North planning for second nuclear test
Looks like they're serious about developing it after all.
Indications NK attempting second nuclear test soon
Japan also monitoring North Korea following reports concerning second test
:( Man this is gatting way to serious I just hope that a big ass war doesnt break out
This is really getting worse to worse. Who knows where this will lead to........ This is exactly like the beginning of WW1. NK action's is like when the Bosnian guy killed the archiduc. It's the final touch like a cherry on a cake. yummmQuote:
North Korea has warned it would take sanctions as a declaration of war and has threatened to take further unspecified "physical measures."
We should get prepared for WW3.
Don't know if it'll be World War 3. I don't think China or Russia would be backing North Korea's Regime which would turn the tide's of war, if not it's more or less a definite annihilation of North Korea. Hence Kim Jong Ill's need to have nuclear technology so that he can stay in power.
And North Korea's missle technology isn't perfected yet. So it's unlikely they'll hit anywhere in America except Alaska (for what? lol) So at most, we'll kiss goodbye to anime's in Japan, and North Korea. :(
What would be interesting, is that China makes the first pre-emptive strike and takes North Korea before everyone else does.
Look at the situation in the world now. Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran and its nuclear power, Palestine-Israel conflict, and during the summer time : Lebananon-Hezbollah-Israel conflict. And now NK, and its always after the USA. Hopefully, nothing will happen and somehow, NK will go back to what they where doing and stop planning the nuclear bombs.
These nuclears bombs are destroying the environnement. Plus, they will have long term effects on the futur generations. Kids will be deformed or have cancer. And the foods will contain gods know what and wont be healthy for us. Also, NK's economy is based on agriculture. NK is feeding it's own people radioactive food. Not smart at all......
I don't know if that is so huge a problem with underground detonations, unless there's some underground water stream flowing straight through the test site. But you would think they would have checked for such things.
I just today heard in the news that only about 20% of the land area of NK is suitable for any kind of agriculture. So, that would leave lots of barren space far away from rice fields for nuclear tests.
The political ramifications must be much worse than the ecological right now.