Anime catching up to manga super quickly

[Assertn]

it doesnt put any more weight on the last release as it would on any other release......
right now its 212/124 = 1.7097

if next week's episode was to have the extreme (which is usually the highest is 3 chapters in an ep), then the ratio becomes
215/125 = 1.7200

in other words, an increase of 0.01
the current trend is 2 chapters per ep, which would make next week most likely
214/125 = 1.7120

and its the fluctuation of these values are only going to decrease as time goes by.

For the sake of practicality, trying to filter out extra details would be unnecessary, since outlier or not, they all affect the final date. And there's no use trying to calculate how much time goes to fillters either, since sometimes there may be whole eps of fillers, while others it may be 2 minutes or less. Besides, leaving the fillers in the calculation only reinforces the current trends.....since its a relatively consistent thing they do. Then you also have to take into account random weeks where there are no manga chapters at all.

Even though there were about 5 episodes of naruto filler eps, there were easily 5 weeks within the past half year where no manga chapters were released. Thus cancelling those out anyway.


and now i lost my train of thought.....and have to leave.......so blah

[Ithmatic]

interpolating a lot of data takes into account the averages. If a slow episode happens at the end, it wont affect the line. Using your formula the line MUST pass through the first and last points, and thus is greatly influence by the last point. Taking into account all points, the formula will allow the line to miss the last point, as long as the overall distance to all the points from the line is minimized. I'm just saying if you want to be totally accurate you should take into account all points and do a linear regression (LR) on the data set. That being said, your automatic update tool is a really cool idea, even if you dont use LR. If you want help incorporating LR to your predictor you can find a lot of packages that will do it for you...

[Jessper]

Alright mister perfect, I edited in "to me" my bad. What does each dot represent?

PS Totally accurate is a little grandiose don't you think?

[Assertn]

i agree, jessper

[Ithmatic]

Yeah you're right, "totally accurate" is the wrong term...sorry wasn't really careful with my language.

[Ithmatic]

Each dot represents:

-a release of a volume for the manga
-an episode of the anime that matches up with the end of a volume release for the anime.

[Jessper]

and the y-axis is manga volume # right? Shouldn't each dot be higher then the last one then? I have never looked into the manga at all so perhaps this is why I don't understand the graph...

[Jaredster]

Masashi Kishimoto may just have to pick up the pace on the mangas and/or the anime will have to slow down a bit.

[Assertn]

I knew there was a flaw in your graph, but it didnt occur to me until just now what it actually was......
you're interpolating outliers for the anime, but not for the manga. Because of this, it seems that the anime is catching up at a faster rate than it actually is.

As of right now, you're averaging in the weeks where no naruto manga is released, thus the overall slope of the manga line permanently decreases everytime that happens. What should happen, is that the line shifts to the right whenever a week is skipped, while maintaining the same slope.

[Psyke]

Originally posted by: Jaredster
Masashi Kishimoto may just have to pick up the pace on the mangas and/or the anime will have to slow down a bit.

The anime will definately have to slow down, as it is based on the manga and vice versa. ForKishimoto his priority will have to be the manga, as that's his job. He doesn't have to do anything for the anime every week.

[Ithmatic]

Jessper: Each dot should be greater than or equal to the previous one. This is because these are volume releases, and they're not released every month.

Assertn: I'm interpolating the manga the same way I'm interpolating the anime. If you're talking about the chapters, then yeah, that's a problem, since I'm not incorporating chapter data, only volume releases of the manga. However, this should be averaged out in the long run in how fast the story progresses in the manga. Ideally I'd want the chapter release dates (currently I'm assuming each chapter was released 2 months before each volume release since that's what the current gap was when I made it), but I dont have access to those dates. Only the volume ones.

[Ithmatic]

Oh Assertn, I thought about your comment a bit and I understand what you mean now about averaging in the months when no manga volume is released. I agree that it's shiftng the line too much to the right. I'll try and fix that for the next update, thanks.

Warning from the real mods: Use the edit button next time. Please do not double post.

GotWoot Moderator

[Lefty]

STOP DOUBLE POSTING FOR THE FUCKING LOVE OF GOD!!!!!!! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-mad.gif[/img] Use the edit button. If you keep it up you'll be banned.

[Assertn]

i wouldnt mess with lefty if i were you.....he has swords

[GhostKaGe]

first thing is for master pie never to use the word "super" again

i don't think it'll catch the manga not with the inevitable filler saga probably show a 6 episode montage of naruto training