Why is it stupid logic? It's been the pattern so far. That's how people learn and progress. They read patterns and use them for prediction. Saying "things might randomly change because we have no absolute proof it won't" seems more illogical to me.
The breakup is hardly a tragedy compared to Rem and everyone else dying. And that breakup has nothing to do with Emilia getting killed by cultists. That said, I'm pretty sure that save point was selected for the drama.
I think the main difference between our views is I'm approaching this story as a story, not immersing myself in it. I can easily predict what will happen because I've read/seen stories like this before. I totally welcome a surprise, but right now, I don't think the possibility is high.