Black swans favor those who don't aim for them.
Black swans favor those who don't aim for them.
10/4/04 - 8/20/07
Originally Posted by Assertn
I'm sorry. What? Am I the only one who didn't understand that? Are the rich people the black swans or...what?
It means that luck finds those who don't try and find luck in their lives. People who fall into unexpected wealth aren't usually those who work hard for it.
That's my understanding, at least. I guess he could be saying "hard work doesn't pay off," but that's just wrong.
<@Terra> he told me this, "man actually meeting terra is so fucking big", and he started crying. Then he bought me hot dogs
Most world-changing discoveries are made by accident.
Or at least made while aiming for a different world-changing discovery.
Zuckerberg wasn't trying to become rich from his site. He just wanted a tool for his fellow students to use.
10/4/04 - 8/20/07
Insulin wasn't intended for diabetics.
@Assert:
Ok. Brohammer, first of all. Saying that Zuckerbrg wasn't trying to look for wealth from his little online baby, is just wrong. Yes, maybe he didn't intend to become what he is or break records. However, saying that he never ever wanted to it to become a tool for building wealth is just plain ignorant towards the American dream. I will agree with you though (only half) but I will agree that most world changing discoveries are made by accident. However to me, it's god telling you to not be stupid in your day to day job and take this chance to make something of your life, if you're meant to of course. And if you see the signs.
@XanBcoo:
I think it's half and half. Nowhere on the list would be where they are (rare exception) if they didn't have terrific luck in some way. Be it meeting someone in life who you accidentally spill coffee on or something. Or happen to be in the same aisle in a store or something like that. The other half being intellect to see the potential of what you're discovering or trying to develop.
examples:
Ford and the car
the Google guys and trying to just organize the worlds info for easy access
Kodak and inventing a better camera system for the world
Note:
But even those guys knew what they were doing. My main point is, you're either meant to or you aren't. If you're chosen for it, hopefully you'll see it and go for it. If not then good luck in the 9-5 grind. All of those people (besides inheritances) had an extreme very very rare will to not give up and to be smart enough to make something of their lives. Be it world changing/profitable or not.
For those who don't know what black swan events are...
Basically, they're very rare breakthroughs that completely break people's expectations and understanding. So like, the success of facebook and the rise of social networking in general. Similarly, Microsoft's rise.
Interestingly, the top of the billionaire list, Warren Buffett, didn't get there via a black swan, but by what's called "value investing"...
True, however investing in itself can benefit or suffer greatly through black swans.
10/4/04 - 8/20/07
@complich8
Yeah but did you notice how long it took him? The stakes in Berkshire keeping rising, but value investing takes fucking forever to get your self anywhere decent financially. It could take at least 8-10+ years to become billionaire from it. Thats a long time. Too long. Point being BSE's only make you get rich faster than regular means. And it's been proven that in business most BSE's have been tech rises. Hence Jim Cramers reasoning behind the 4 horseman of tech.
Carlos Slim (#2) also wasn't a BSE event. He bought the Mexican land line system (90% market share). And look where he is.
Plus Buffett wanted to become wealthy. BSE's only make you rich if you want to be. And building a business out of it still means getting (having in most cases) a crap load of business sense, and drive to know what you're doing. Now thats rare.
@Assert
1)
You'd have to have to be really stupid to not benefit from a black swan event. I mean a real capital A grade dumb-ass not to attach yourself to it early on. I mean c'mon, if we knew Gates in the 80's, we'd be getting some capital to ride that train out.
2)
How can they suffer from investing in them? I'd love to see you explain that one. (I'll use reason number 1 as my back up reasoning for this)
3)
If they were discovered on accident. Don't you think that god had something to do with it in one form or another? That accident doesn't just happen to anyone.
However. One could argue that AIM, online chatting and chat rooms could be the prelude to what Facebook and MySpace have brought to the table. So Zuckerberg wasn't bringingthat big of a BSE (black swan event). In fact what he created wasn't useful at all really. We don't need to network online. We needed an operating system, so Gates on the other hand, now that was a BSE of monumental proportions. He wanted to be rich and knew what he was doing.
Last edited by conquistaDan; Fri, 03-14-2008 at 01:42 AM.
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