Noe is the obvious choice for two reasons:

1) She is the main female character. I say so because of three reasons
- The title is true tears, and she is the only one with a direct relation to it
- She is walking at the very front in the ending theme (not a certain indicator, but it helps)
- Most pictures for true tears have her as the center of attention

2) The "confession" to Hiromi was two episodes too early
- If he was going to end up with her, it will be placed most likely in the end as a climax
- Shinichiro has time to come to his senses, which has already begun in this episode

I would like to add that Hiromi is a bitch, especially in this episode. The guy never ends up with the bitch, no matter how close they seem to be (points to Shuffle! as an example).