News: North Korea goes nuclear

[Kraco]

North Korea isn't an effecient communist country by any means. Their people would die of hunger without international aid.

Yeah. In the news some UN aid division official was hoping the sanctions won't stop the food aid. It's the sad fact, like it was with Iraq, that it's only the ordinary people who will suffer if the food stops coming in. The leaders and the oppression army will always have plenty to eat. And you can bet the internal propaganda machinery in North Korea will feed lies to the citizens telling how the evil foreign countries prevent food from coming in just out of spite.

[mr3vi1m0nk3y]

I disagree. My points are outlined as follows:
A) Japan is naturally imperialistic (Opinion based on historic fact)
B) Japan could have one of the strongest militaries in the world, quickly, if increased military expenditure (Japan currently spends 1% of economy on military)
C) Japan could easily obtain nuclear technology at the level of the United States and Russia which China and North Korea do not have
D) Japan re militarized with nuclear technology could again conquer Korea and parts of China (I doubt they'd go far beyond Korea, but they could easily bully China and control the region) And Russia would be hard pressed to intervene at this point in their history
E) A nuclear remilitarized Japan is competition for resources with the US and its allies which makes them a threat, not a benefit
F) China would not go as far as military action against North Korea (which is the only response that would stop NK at this point) to stop a Japan remilitarization SCENARIO, Japan could be researching right now and drawing plans (if they have any sense they are) which means it is too late

A. Natrualy Imperialistc? Maybe in 1940's, nearly 60 years have gone by. To prejudge an entire nations behavior based soley on history is naive.

B. Agreed. Most, if not all of the electronic parts the US uses for its weapons systems come from Japan. The F-22 Raptor, the US's new 5th gen strike fighters, new avionics system comes right from Japan. Not only would Japan be able to quickly militarize using its domestic industry the US would be happy to sell it its own tech as its doing now with the F-22 and the F-35.

C. Again true. The entire country is run on nuclear power so there is no shortage of fissionable material and with their ability with robotics and fine manufacturing they could easily build nuclear weapons very easily.

D. I totally disagree with you here. Japan may be entering a new nationalistic period, but remilitarizing and going on to pull the same shit they did pre-WWII isn't going to happen. Japan is looking for a permenent seat on the Security Council in the UN and looking to impove its standing on the international stage. Invading other countries with the intent to occupy and colonize them hurt both of those causes. And Japan "bullying" China is impossible. No matter how much Japan builds up its military it wouldn't be able to do much to China. You have to remember that China has the world's largest army at 1,700,000 the worlds 2nd largest air force and navy at 3,520 and 230,000 respectivly. Japan bullying China is out of the question uless they develop working Gundams

E. Again no, what resources would they be competing for? Oil? Remiliterizing would increase Japan's need for it but they aren't hostile with Venezuela or the OPEC nations like the US is so that wouldn't be a problem. Neither would nuclear material for the reasons stated in C and that the US has its own large deposits of Uranium.

F. Maybe no, maybe yes. Its in China's best interest that a communist power stay in control of NK. They wouldn't want Korea to be united under a democratic regime with US troops right on the border or they're own citizens deciding its time for a regime chage of their own, and they sure as hell don't want any poor NK refugees pouring across their border. But they may decide that Kim Jong Ill isn't the right person to head that communist regime. If China does invade NK to remove Kim then they look good to the US and the rest of the world while keeping the status quo in place and securing more influence in NK mostly among the poor.

Stoopider:
Don't underestimate the US role in Taiwan. China hasn't taken Taiwan already because they are still afraid of the possible US response. The US military presense in the area is very strong, with the base in Japan and 3 aircraft carriers in the area, in addition to nuclear submarines. Money has to go somewhere, in that case in obtaining MORE...

That and the international backlash of invading Taiwan with no provocation or reason other then for "national unity" looks really bad. Don't underestimate China's military forces if they did decide to invade Taiwan it would be costly but they could do it US forces or not.

[gr3atfull]

What really is funny is the Sanctions. The Sanctions wont do anything to NK. I mean NK is a communist country, so the country doesnt really import or export. That means that the sanction wont affect it at all. The UN better think of something better to stop NK of going even crazier.

On the saturday newspaper, I read that NK exports 1,3 billion $ and import 3.3 billion$. And NK's top partner is China.

I guess sanctions might work..... and NK is not a really a communist country after all.....

[Honoko]

On the saturday newspaper, I read that NK exports 1,3 billion $ and import 3.3 billion$. And NK's top partner is China.

I guess sanctions might work..... and NK is not a really a communist country after all.....

If this is true, then NK is doing a super shitty job distributing that wealth to its populace. Bastards.

[Deadfire]

Well annual military spending is about $5 billion USD for NK. so thats possibly where it's all going.

As well looking at their economy it looks to be a very shitty job indeed

[DeathscytheVII]

Disagree. Don't think China gives a too hoot about America. If they go to invade Taiwan, it's doubtful America would throw all especially bringing nuclear weapons into the picture going all out for little Taiwan. They'll just have a very stern warning and economic sanctions.

Economic sanctions by the US would ruin China, and vice versa causing the worlds economy into a depression. Taiwan generates alot of business for both ends as well, with Taiwanese investors now flooding into China's coastal cities.

But the discussion about Taiwan and China is for another thread. This thread is about Korea.

China does give a hoot about America, considering they have the largest nuclear arsenals in the world. And the world's biggest conventional army may sound good, but China still needs to improve its navy and airforce. the US has a near worldwide monopoly on the number of nuclear carriers in existence, not to mention nuclear submarines. The nukes are the deterrent.

What is bad however, is that right now, thanks to bush's cowboy diplomacy, With america's army stretched out in Iraq and Afganistan, the U.S has less power than it does in the region, since China knows the U.S won't be able to act as quickly as it used to with its forces tied down else where.

Originally Posted by gr3atfull
What really is funny is the Sanctions. The Sanctions wont do anything to NK. I mean NK is a communist country, so the country doesnt really import or export.

Sanctions would work, its just that China would never allow it, or at this point, they won't allow it to the point where its effective. They aren't prepared to deal with millions of starving korean refugees at their borders. Korea right now imports most of its food from China, along with oil and supplies. Korea does export some things though, like decrepit bicycles. hehe, i saw this image of a ton of these things on a cargo ship at anchor in Japan, because Japan wouldn't let them trade anymore. =/

Japan re militarized with nuclear technology could again conquer Korea and parts of China (I doubt they'd go far beyond Korea, but they could easily bully China and control the region) And Russia would be hard pressed to intervene at this point in their history

This is the 21st Century, and Japan is a market-democracy now, not an imperalist monarchy. Besides, even with nuclear weapons, Japan is hard pressed to conquer a large country such as korea. Why would they do so against a fellow democracy? (South of course), when China is off shore with the world's largest army? There may be an arms race in the worst case scenario, but not a full scale imperalist war, by Japan Nonetheless, most of Japan's largest multi-national companies wouldn't stand for it.

[SK]

A. Natrualy Imperialistc? Maybe in 1940's, nearly 60 years have gone by. To prejudge an entire nations behavior based soley on history is naive.

B. Agreed. Most, if not all of the electronic parts the US uses for its weapons systems come from Japan. The F-22 Raptor, the US's new 5th gen strike fighters, new avionics system comes right from Japan. Not only would Japan be able to quickly militarize using its domestic industry the US would be happy to sell it its own tech as its doing now with the F-22 and the F-35.

C. Again true. The entire country is run on nuclear power so there is no shortage of fissionable material and with their ability with robotics and fine manufacturing they could easily build nuclear weapons very easily.

D. I totally disagree with you here. Japan may be entering a new nationalistic period, but remilitarizing and going on to pull the same shit they did pre-WWII isn't going to happen. Japan is looking for a permenent seat on the Security Council in the UN and looking to impove its standing on the international stage. Invading other countries with the intent to occupy and colonize them hurt both of those causes. And Japan "bullying" China is impossible. No matter how much Japan builds up its military it wouldn't be able to do much to China. You have to remember that China has the world's largest army at 1,700,000 the worlds 2nd largest air force and navy at 3,520 and 230,000 respectivly. Japan bullying China is out of the question uless they develop working Gundams

E. Again no, what resources would they be competing for? Oil? Remiliterizing would increase Japan's need for it but they aren't hostile with Venezuela or the OPEC nations like the US is so that wouldn't be a problem. Neither would nuclear material for the reasons stated in C and that the US has its own large deposits of Uranium.

F. Maybe no, maybe yes. Its in China's best interest that a communist power stay in control of NK. They wouldn't want Korea to be united under a democratic regime with US troops right on the border or they're own citizens deciding its time for a regime chage of their own, and they sure as hell don't want any poor NK refugees pouring across their border. But they may decide that Kim Jong Ill isn't the right person to head that communist regime. If China does invade NK to remove Kim then they look good to the US and the rest of the world while keeping the status quo in place and securing more influence in NK mostly among the poor.



That and the international backlash of invading Taiwan with no provocation or reason other then for "national unity" looks really bad. Don't underestimate China's military forces if they did decide to invade Taiwan it would be costly but they could do it US forces or not.

A. They have continually had wars with Korea.

D. I wasn't saying they will start conquering Korea again etc etc, I think they would use their new military mainly as a deterrent to China and North Korea. What I am saying is that the wounds from WWII are still fresh, especially for China, and they do not want a militarized Japan because the possibility is always there. This would cause China to want to improve their military. This is exactly what the US is afraid of, an arms race in the region which could eventually lead to war. BTW, man power doesn't matter when say, American missiles can carry 8 nuclear warheads and be launched from submarines, while China has no where near that missile technology.

E. Nations are ALWAYS competing for resources...

F. Yep

[mr3vi1m0nk3y]

@SK
I'm not familiar with any wars between Japan and Korea other then the occupation of the Korea during WWII. There have been a few disputes with Korea and China over territory but nothing has involved military action. And yes manpower is still the main deciding factor in wars. You can have all the fancy military tech you want, but if you want to keep the real estate you win you need boots on the ground to hold it. No advancements in tech will ever change that. Besides nuclear weapons will never be used in tradidtional nation to nation warfare because of mutual self-destruction. No one wants this, its the only reason why the Cold War stayed cold. FYI China has ICBM's capable of reaching US just like we have ICBM's capable of reaching them. China's weapons tech is just as good as the US, so underestimating them would be a serious mistake.

@gr3atfull
Sanctions would work, it just depends on what your restricting. Cutting of basic goods such as food wouldn't hurt the KIm's power base. Cutting off luxury good like the cognac and wine KIm drinks with his caviar every night, or the fancy cars that Kim uses as gifts to his generals and bodyguards will damage his power base. While we wouldn't be able to stop all these goods from getting to NK, if we stop most of them Kim loses one of the main ways of keeping the military on his side. If we can manage to completly cut them off for long enough they might decide to take Kim out just to get their lifestyle back. Once you get used to living so richly its suck to have it suddenly cut off.

[gr3atfull]

@ DeathscytheVII:

Of course sanctions imposed by the UN wouldn't work because of China. I have read that China-NK export/import is about 1.6 Billion $. That's a lot. It's like buying youtube.

[SK]

@SK
I'm not familiar with any wars between Japan and Korea other then the occupation of the Korea during WWII. There have been a few disputes with Korea and China over territory but nothing has involved military action. And yes manpower is still the main deciding factor in wars. You can have all the fancy military tech you want, but if you want to keep the real estate you win you need boots on the ground to hold it. No advancements in tech will ever change that. Besides nuclear weapons will never be used in tradidtional nation to nation warfare because of mutual self-destruction. No one wants this, its the only reason why the Cold War stayed cold. FYI China has ICBM's capable of reaching US just like we have ICBM's capable of reaching them. China's weapons tech is just as good as the US, so underestimating them would be a serious mistake.

Japan has tried to invade Korea before WWII.
Clausewitz says the enemy submits to your will using overwhelming force, I am just following his doctrine. In our times, nuclear strikes are the best overwhelming force avaliable.
There is no mutual self destruction scenario with China because they do not have the missile system avaliable to respond fast enough to US missiles. China does not have nuclear missile technology at the same level as the US' this is a known fact. They only have around 25 missiles which can only carry a single warhead each and are very outdated (obviously.) US missiles can carry up to 8 warheads each and are currently deployed with 6 warheads each. In contrast with the new Russian missiles which are capable of diverting manuevers the Chinese missiles are not which means they can be shot down especially with the new anti missile laser systems in the United States.

[masamuneehs]

breaking news: South Korea says North planning for second nuclear test

Looks like they're serious about developing it after all.

Indications NK attempting second nuclear test soon
Japan also monitoring North Korea following reports concerning second test

[nests]

Man this is gatting way to serious I just hope that a big ass war doesnt break out

[gr3atfull]

North Korea has warned it would take sanctions as a declaration of war and has threatened to take further unspecified "physical measures."

This is really getting worse to worse. Who knows where this will lead to........ This is exactly like the beginning of WW1. NK action's is like when the Bosnian guy killed the archiduc. It's the final touch like a cherry on a cake. yummm

We should get prepared for WW3.

[Stoopider]

Don't know if it'll be World War 3. I don't think China or Russia would be backing North Korea's Regime which would turn the tide's of war, if not it's more or less a definite annihilation of North Korea. Hence Kim Jong Ill's need to have nuclear technology so that he can stay in power.

And North Korea's missle technology isn't perfected yet. So it's unlikely they'll hit anywhere in America except Alaska (for what? lol) So at most, we'll kiss goodbye to anime's in Japan, and North Korea.

What would be interesting, is that China makes the first pre-emptive strike and takes North Korea before everyone else does.

[gr3atfull]

Look at the situation in the world now. Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran and its nuclear power, Palestine-Israel conflict, and during the summer time : Lebananon-Hezbollah-Israel conflict. And now NK, and its always after the USA. Hopefully, nothing will happen and somehow, NK will go back to what they where doing and stop planning the nuclear bombs.

These nuclears bombs are destroying the environnement. Plus, they will have long term effects on the futur generations. Kids will be deformed or have cancer. And the foods will contain gods know what and wont be healthy for us. Also, NK's economy is based on agriculture. NK is feeding it's own people radioactive food. Not smart at all......

[Kraco]

I don't know if that is so huge a problem with underground detonations, unless there's some underground water stream flowing straight through the test site. But you would think they would have checked for such things.

I just today heard in the news that only about 20% of the land area of NK is suitable for any kind of agriculture. So, that would leave lots of barren space far away from rice fields for nuclear tests.

The political ramifications must be much worse than the ecological right now.