When will the anime tie the manga

This may have been stated before, but I could not find it with search. But here are some interesting calculations I did on anime/mania to correct another post's math.

Given one episode and one anime per week, the anime will be covering the same topic as the manga sometime around the following time:

Anime Ties Manga
Date: Around Two years time. May-July 2006
Episode: Somewhere in the 180s-190s
Chapter: Somewhere between chapter 311 and 330

Now I have heard that the anime is supposed to run for 250 episodes. If this is true then one of three things has to happen:
a. Chapters will begin to be released more than 1 a week
b. Episodes will begin to be released slower than one per week (think reruns).
c. The quality of the episodes will drop.

Which of these three options do you guys think is the most likely?

Reasoning Explained: Ignore this if you hate math
Notes and Assumptions before we begin
1. The manga began sometime in 1999 according to Naruto Fan. Because of this it has been being put out slower than one per week, but one per week as an estimate is close enough.
2. The anime started fourth quarter 2002 and I forget where I heard this, but it has been coming out close to one per week.
3. I read in the naruto mania forum that anime and and manga only have 51 episodes per year because of something called golden week. I am ignoring this because I don't think one week really matters, so all my equations are off by a couple weeks.
4. Obviously previous release rate of the anime / manga have no direct correlation with future release, but it can be used as a good estimate.
5. This calculation is based off episode 85 which roughly corresponds to chapter 148 (just part of it)

A. Episodes per chapter
Episode 17 roughly corresponds to chapter 28 = 1.64 chapters per episode (28 chapter / 17 episode)
Episode 39 rougly corresponds to chapter 68 = 1.74 chapters per episode
Episode 64 roughly corresponds to chapter 107 = 1.67 chapters per episode
Episode 85 roughly corresponds to chapter 148 = 1.74 chapters per episode

Note that throughout the life of the anime, each episode has covered around 1.7 chapters. This will be the number we use.

B. Equations
We want to find the number of weeks before the chapter and the episodes tie. Given 1 episode and one chapter per week and that we are at episode 85 and chapter 217 we have the following equations.

Equation I: tied_episode = weeks_left (episode/week) + 85 episodes
Equation II: tied_chapter = weeks_left (chapter/week) + 217 chapters

Given that there are 1.7 chapters per episodes we have
Equation III: tied_episode * 1.7 (chapters/episode) = tied_chapter

C. Algebra
Given Equation I and III we can modify I so that:
Equation Ib: 1.7(chapter/episode) ((tied_episode) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes))
Multiplying out we get
Equation Ic: tied_chapter = 1.7 weeks_left (chapters/week)+ 145 chapters

Therefore, we can set equation II and Ic equal to each other
Equation IV: 1.7 weeks_left (chapters / week) + 145 chapters = weeks_left(chapter / week) + 217 chapters

Solving, we have:
Equation IVb: .7 weeks_left (chapter / week) = 72 chapters
therefore
weeks_left = 103 weeks = roughly 2 years = summer 2006
Chapter = 217 + 103 = 320
Episode = 85 + 103 weeks = 188

Other Interesting notes:
At the current rate of production, when will the episode cover the same stuff from the current chapter(217)?
Around April of 2005
What episode will that be?
About 130
What Chapter will be out then?
Around 260

Note: Shuriell of the naruto mania forums had a similar post. He comes up with the 1.7 chapters / week equation and has the basics of equations I and II, but the post does not correctly handle terms and I believe the calculations in that post to be incorrect. But he did have some good equation layouts that I followed in my post. To see that thread go here.

Edit: Fixed a point of grammer.

Okay, looks like to did a lot of math to figure all that out... anyways i don't really think it would be that there would be more than 1 chapter a week, i think that it's probably hard enough for a manga-ka to do 1 chapter a week

You go Einstein! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

yep, we went through that in the open discussion already
although i thought it was predicted to be fall of 2005 that they'd catch up

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Originally posted by: AssertnFailure
yep, we went through that in the open discussion already
although i thought it was predicted to be fall of 2005 that they'd catch up

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I don't think fall of 2005 is correct. If we use one episode and one chapter per week, then in mid october 2005 we will be on:

Chapter: 289
Episode: 156

Given the average rate of 1.7 chapters / episode, then episode 156 will cover the material in chapter 266.
Even if we went with 1.74 chapters / episode, then it would only cover chapter 271.

- GeninDropout

that was a pretty indepth post. after reading the first few lines..it all sounds good although its too much for me to read.
i was wondering the same thing too but i don't have that much time to research that stuff

Well, we are NOT supposed to be discussing about this anyways. If krnbadass was here, he would have closed this thread already.

but good work, it was quite interesting when i read through it. so much spoilage though.

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Originally posted by: jing
Well, we are NOT supposed to be discussing about this anyways. If krnbadass was here, he would have closed this thread already.

but good work, it was quite interesting when i read through it. so much spoilage though.

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huh? Spoilage?? As in people may now know that each episode covers 1.7 chapters in the manga, and what chapter the manga is on??? Or that there is a manga that Naruto is based on???? I don't get why it is considered a spoiler, it is relevent to the anime in a large way(just not for some time).

PS that was one heck of a write up for what appears to be your first post lol.

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Originally posted by: GeninDropout

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Originally posted by: AssertnFailure
yep, we went through that in the open discussion already
although i thought it was predicted to be fall of 2005 that they'd catch up

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I don't think fall of 2005 is correct. If we use one episode and one chapter per week, then in mid october 2005 we will be on:

Chapter: 289
Episode: 156

Given the average rate of 1.7 chapters / episode, then episode 156 will cover the material in chapter 266.
Even if we went with 1.74 chapters / episode, then it would only cover chapter 271.

- GeninDropout

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yes well im well aware of finding the intersection of two equations using the 1.7 constant, that was exactly what i did a while back...i was just saying that 2005 is what memory serves [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif[/img]

i should go dig up my graphing calculator....

Well the mods considered a spoiler, cuz you give the anime readers a hint of how long this anime is still going to last...

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Originally posted by: jing
Well the mods considered a spoiler, cuz you give the anime readers a hint of how long this anime is still going to last...

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I didn't mean for this to be a spoiler if it is (which I don't think it is because 250 episodes is based on the anime contract, not the manga contract). Knowing that someone is making a miniseries with X amounts of episodes does not spoil the miniseries. Also, any numbers as to episodes are most likely subject to change.

I actually meant to post this in Naruto general when I first posted it, however, and screwed up and clicked on the Naruto forum. Anyway, If the mods consider it a spoiler then I hope they move it there.

- GeninDropout

P.S. Thanks for the compliments Itachi and Jessper

AssertionFailure: It would be cool to see what you come up with when you graph it. I don't think my math is wrong, but it could be and we could be using different assumptions.=P If your thread is still up I will link to it if you want.

when tha anime catches up to hte manga i wonder what'll happen prolly a filler arc or two...... or some time of break

nah dont worry about it, the thread's long gone anyway

jing what are you talking about? hinting at the length of the anime series is not a spoiler of the plot itself in any way....thats goin a little overboard
besides...the manga is still coming out each week, so we have no idea when it will end either...in fact this topic isnt even ABOUT when the anime will end, its about when the anime would catch up to the manga at the current rate they are going at

sigh whatever, ill let what the mods deal with this. like they always had been.

Well, id close this because its an absolutely pointless thread, but beings as no one posts anymore i might as well leave it open.

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Originally posted by: jing
Well the mods considered a spoiler, cuz you give the anime readers a hint of how long this anime is still going to last...

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It's not a spoiler. Why would it be considered one??

I doubt the anime would catch up to the manga. If I was Kishimoto I would leave some breathing space for improvement. The manga would either quicken it's pace, or the anime slow's down it's pace (More evil flashbacks)....

Or worse, probably we might have a season off from Naruto. [img]i/expressions/brokenheart.gif[/img]

Hey, alls that i can say is i'm sure as hell glad that we're looking at a minimum of like 2 more years of Anime...i'm addicted to it lol I was thinking(before this post) "OMG what if they stop the anime like end of the year cos it's 2 episode per anime" But now that you've provided the 1.7 constant, i feel better. Thanks man! I just hope Kishimoto keeps pumping out storylines in the anime, cos ultimately (and here's MY equation) More Manga = More Anime = More Fun for mee!

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Originally posted by: Krbadass
Well, id close this because its an absolutely pointless thread, but beings as no one posts anymore i might as well leave it open.

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It's not a pointless thread, it's pretty interesting. Maybe that's one of the reasons people don't post anymore, because everything gets locked up and discourages new users from posting.

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Originally posted by: Xollence

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Originally posted by: Krbadass
Well, id close this because its an absolutely pointless thread, but beings as no one posts anymore i might as well leave it open.

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It's not a pointless thread, it's pretty interesting. Maybe that's one of the reasons people don't post anymore, because everything gets locked up and discourages new users from posting.

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ooo go xollence lol...i must agree with you though. It's pretty interesting to find out cool tidbits like that

Yep all your answers are correct (besides rounding that could make it 1 off), but Equation Ib

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Equation Ib: 1.7(chapter/episode) ((tied_episode) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes))

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should be
tied_chapter / (1.7 chapter/episode) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes)

And just to make it less confusing,

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Equation III: tied_episode * 1.7 (chapters/episode) = tied_chapter

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in this equation, chapters/episode is just a unit. so a simpler Equation III is
Equation III: tied_chapter = 1.7 * tied_episode