Anime catching up to manga super quickly

[Mister Pie]

For those of you who don't know, the anime is catching up with the manga at an extremely fast pace. Anybody know what's gonna happen at the end? Will the show just go on hiatus for a while or will they just put in a TON of filler episodes?

[Deblas]

anime catching up to anime. Don't you mean anime catching up to the manga.

EDIT: ohh, you changed it already. okay then

[Prof. Chaos]

Well reading the manga, I feel they are going to have to do some filler episodes.

[Terracosmo]

They need to do a filler adventure starring Sakon & Kimimaro

[Stoopider]

Probably some filler episode involving Naruto Sasuke and Sakura going on a mission into outer space.

Or the new Hokage. How she keeps her youthfulness! Drink the blood of young genins!

See what the Sandy people are doing in their hometown.

[jing]

I heard rumours that there will be a mission with shino and his dad.

[Terracosmo]

That would be damn neat as well.

[basey44]

origin of sakon filler saga, yusss

[Aeon]

Originally posted by: jing
I heard rumours that there will be a mission with shino and his dad.

I hope not, next to Sakura I like him the least out of all the genins.

[Jaredster]

Originally posted by: Aeon


Originally posted by: jing
I heard rumours that there will be a mission with shino and his dad.

I hope not, next to Sakura I like him the least out of all the genins.

why? I can understand Sakura, but why Shino?

[Assertn]

i came up with a math formula just now in the manga section to guess when the anime would catch up to the manga
feel free to point out any errors in my logic


First of all, the functions for anime and manga releases are the simple slope formula y=mx+b
the b variable is replaced with the # of episodes/chapters already out since last week
the m variable is 1, since only 1 episode/chapter is released per week
we also know that there are currently 122 anime episodes out, and 248 manga chapters out
and finally, we know that anime episode 122 corresponds with manga chapter 208

Anime:
122+t=A(t)
t = # of weeks from last release
A(t) = total # of anime episodes at week "t"

Manga:
248+t=M(t)
t = # of weeks from last release
M(t) = total # of manga chapters at week "t"

Ratio:
M(t) = A(t) * (208/122)
M(t) = A(t) * (104/61)


Next step is to combine these 3 functions into 1 function

first, since both Manga and Ratio functions are solved for M(t), we'll combine these:
248 + t = A(t) * (104/61)
(248 + t)(61/104) = A(t)

now that we have this solved for A(t), we can combine it with the Anime function:
(248 + t)(61/104) = 122 + t
(1891/13) + (61/104)t = 122 + t
(305/13) = t - (61/104)t
(305/13) = (43/104)t
t = 56.74 weeks

so there ya have it......at the rate its going, the anime will catch up to the manga in march of next year

[KameronFrye]

I'm a little confused by your formula there... does it mean that 56.74 weeks until it is caught up to this week's manga run or until it is hitting the same exact point as the manga is running?

As for the potential for a mission being Shino and his dad, I have two words to say:

Fuck Yes.

Shino's a bad ass, whether you want to accept it or not.

[Aeon]

I think the only reason why people think that Shino is badass is cause he has the whole dark and mysterious thing going on. If you seen one Shino fight you seen them all( Shino releases bugs, gets owned, before enemy gives him a death blow bugs pop up on the enemy body, Shino wins).

[Assertn]

Originally posted by: KameronFrye
I'm a little confused by your formula there... does it mean that 56.74 weeks until it is caught up to this week's manga run or until it is hitting the same exact point as the manga is running?

no, in 56 weeks the anime will be at the same point that the manga will be in 56 weeks

it would be about 23 weeks, i think, that the anime will reach where the last week's manga chapter is at

[GoatLord]

Originally posted by: Aeon
I think the only reason why people think that Shino is badass is cause he has the whole dark and mysterious thing going on. If you seen one Shino fight you seen them all( Shino releases bugs, gets owned, before enemy gives him a death blow bugs pop up on the enemy body, Shino wins).

Well, sure, that was the point Shino was at when we last saw him. He can still pick up a few more tricks, and we haven't seen what his dad can do. Besides, it won't be hard to beat the last filler arc.

[Prof. Chaos]

You're formula is flawed, did you take into account the filler arc, those 6 episodes??? And it has always been about 1.5-3 manga issues per anime episode.

[Krbadass]

Don't ever do math at gotwoot again.

[kooshi]

Well, if they do try to make filler episodes, they better be good. Jeez, the last filler "saga" was TERRIBLE.

[Assertn]

Originally posted by: Prof. Chaos
You're formula is flawed, did you take into account the filler arc, those 6 episodes??? And it has always been about 1.5-3 manga issues per anime episode.

the filler arc is negligable
besides, back when i did the math during the chuunin exam, the rate was about 1.7 chapters per ep
which is the SAME as it is right now

so for over a year now, the ratio hasnt changed all that much regardless


whats wrong krb, intimidated? i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif

[KitKat]

Assertn, although your formula is quite simplistic, it works as a fairly good model to come up with a rough estimate.

Btw, you have no idea how sexy you are when you are solving equations i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif

[Phoenix23]

Originally posted by: KitKat
Assertn, although your formula is quite simplistic, it works as a fairly good model to come up with a rough estimate.

Btw, you have no idea how sexy you are when you are solving equations Please don't make me wash my eyes.

[Assertn]

haha, thanks babe i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif

but.....but....simplistic? its about as complicated as one can get when dealing with intersections between 2 linear equations i/expressions/face-icon-small-blush.gif

[Kagemane_no_Jutsu]

Yea that was pretty complicated.

[DB_Hunter]

Meh... too much math aint healthy.... I just skipped to the end and saw ur result... plus Kitkat seems to second your result, and being an engineer like me... I guess I'll take her judgement in a postive manner.

[basey44]

complicated? i only looked at it quick cos i cbf doing math at that time, but it looked like a simultaneous equation, which when using linear functions isnt really that hard. but maybe im wrong and it was something else i/expressions/face-icon-small-confused.gif

[z0diac]

well this is turning into a little math discussion stead of a Naruto one but just for the record 3 equations with 3 variables is quite simple to solve, once you know the logic to create those equations. In any case, filler mostly suck i/expressions/face-icon-small-mad.gif and specially when they like dragging the show back to I IS NARUTO I WILL OWN YOU LALALAAL and then Naruto gets owned ... and then some stuff happens and Naruto is suddenly back to being strong and cool. Why cant they just make him strong and cool all the time i/expressions/face-icon-small-blush.gif

[Cal_kashi]

imagine how fantastic it would be if the anime and manga did end up ending at the same time, intentionally, in such a way that for, say, the last 3 weeks both the manga and anime readers are left with cliffhangers each week, until a spectacular finish.

[DarthEnderX]

Originally posted by: Aeon


Originally posted by: jing
I heard rumours that there will be a mission with shino and his dad.

I hope not, next to Sakura I like him the least out of all the genins.

Die in the face.

[Omri]

Originally posted by: z0diac
well this is turning into a little math discussion stead of a Naruto one but just for the record 3 equations with 3 variables is quite simple to solve, once you know the logic to create those equations. In any case, filler mostly suck and specially when they like dragging the show back to I IS NARUTO I WILL OWN YOU LALALAAL and then Naruto gets owned ... and then some stuff happens and Naruto is suddenly back to being strong and cool. Why cant they just make him strong and cool all the time

Well, it's not his charcther, he need to be silly and pisset off but in the end be the collest charcther around that kick ass!

[Ithmatic]

http://www.narutofan.com/index.php/content-anime%20guide,series%20progression%20graph

[Jessper]

Originally posted by: Ithmatic
http://www.narutofan.com/index.php/content-anime%20guide,series%20progression%20graph

That graph doesn't make sense to me the y axis is volume # but the graph of manga volumes jumps all over the place and it would look that the 10th mark on the manga volumes graph is where the y axis says 5

right....

[Masamune]

Originally posted by: Jessper


Originally posted by: Ithmatic
http://www.narutofan.com/index.php/content-anime%20guide,series%20progression%20graph

That graph doesn't make sense, the y axis is volume # but the graph of manga volumes jumps all over the place and it would look that the 10th mark on the manga volumes graph is where the y axis says 5

right....

it does make sense. ur counting each little manga ball seperately.

the little black manga balls , on each step represent the dates of release of the volumes. and the time it took till the next volume.

[r3n]

this reminds me of my first year physics labs at uni. deadly boring and the calculated value being pretty miles off and rubbish as you havent considered numerous errors in your approximation.

quoting the expected clash date of the manga and anime to 4 significant figures is absurd, let alone to +/- 2 weeks (assuming a month to be ~ 4 weeks). saying the filler episodes are insignificant is also quite stupid as these can fill up to a months in the next year alone quite easily, so if you take assernt's value as around the correct time mark but far too precise then you should really be thinking of march next year +/- 2 months.

[Jaredster]

Originally posted by: Ithmatic
http://www.narutofan.com/index.php/content-anime%20guide,series%20progression%20graph

Looks like this graph matches AssertnFailure calculations perfectly.

*camera zooms into face* My god... we only have till the end of this year!

[Assertn]

Originally posted by: r3n
quoting the expected clash date of the manga and anime to 4 significant figures is absurd, let alone to +/- 2 weeks (assuming a month to be ~ 4 weeks). saying the filler episodes are insignificant is also quite stupid as these can fill up to a months in the next year alone quite easily, so if you take assernt's value as around the correct time mark but far too precise then you should really be thinking of march next year +/- 2 months.

ok first of all, the reason i left everything in fractions till the end is so the final value can be as detailed as i want it to be. Will you feel all warm and fuzzy in your pants if i spend 3 seconds and come up with a number more like 56.7441860465 instead? geez.....

second of all, if you read my post more carefully, i said,
at the rate its going, the anime will catch up to the manga in march of next year.

obviously filler sagas can change this, but they would need to use filler sagas longer than what they've done so far in order to accomplish this.

I don't care how important you may think fillers are to the calculations, but all I know is that during the prelims, the total average ratio was 1.7 chapters per episode.....and guess what, 70 episodes later and the ratio BARELY changed. The series has been airing for over 2 years, and I dunno about you, but I'd say this is a pretty well established trend.

[Ithmatic]

Yeah I just thought you guys may enjoy a visual representation, since some people dont like numbers.

P.S. Jessper get a brain. Maybe try to ask some questions to understand instead of assuming everyone but you is wrong.

[Assertn]

it IS confusing though.......
i think they shouldve just gotten rid of the purple graph alltogether.....
nobody cares about the volumes anyway, just the chapters and episodes

btw Jessper, It was confusing for me too, but the purple is not manga chapters, the green is....which is why its a straight line with no outliers.

[Ithmatic]

btw, "they" = me. The only reason i put both the chapters and volumes in there is that I only have volume release data...then I just assumed that the chapters are a constant 2 volumes ahead of volume releases.

Your suggestions are good though. Maybe I'll get rid of the volume data? Or at least the linear interpolation of the volume data. Anyways, if you have other suggestions to making it more understandable let me know.

[Assertn]

i did notice the practicality of putting vol #'s there instead of anything else, but I dont think people use the frame of mind to interpret vol #'s into anything.....
chapter #'s would probably be best for the left side in this case.

by the way, does that thing update every week? if so, then good work....I was thinking of putting some online calendar thingy that predicts where the final week is based on the constantly changing ratio

[Ithmatic]

The only problem with calculating the ratio by using only the first and latest releases is that it puts too much weight on the last release. If the last release was a slow one (in terms of storyline progression) then the line will be estimated too shallow. The graph interpolates ALL points so that any inconsistencies are averaged out.

As for the chapters instead of volumes, i guess i could do that...its just a straight mapping right? Is that more understandable to manga readers? (I wouldn't know, I'm a manga virgin).

It doesn't update every week. The way I create it is by using release dates on narutofan.com, but the dates are only for the volumes. So, I can only add a datapoint to the anime line when it reaches the end of a certain volume. I could use a smaller granularity (i.e. chapters) but that would take waay too long. I think the anime has reached another volume so I could add one more data point in there. ANYways, the point is that at most I could only update it like every 1-2 months, when the anime reaches the end of a new volume.

[Assertn]

it doesnt put any more weight on the last release as it would on any other release......
right now its 212/124 = 1.7097

if next week's episode was to have the extreme (which is usually the highest is 3 chapters in an ep), then the ratio becomes
215/125 = 1.7200

in other words, an increase of 0.01
the current trend is 2 chapters per ep, which would make next week most likely
214/125 = 1.7120

and its the fluctuation of these values are only going to decrease as time goes by.

For the sake of practicality, trying to filter out extra details would be unnecessary, since outlier or not, they all affect the final date. And there's no use trying to calculate how much time goes to fillters either, since sometimes there may be whole eps of fillers, while others it may be 2 minutes or less. Besides, leaving the fillers in the calculation only reinforces the current trends.....since its a relatively consistent thing they do. Then you also have to take into account random weeks where there are no manga chapters at all.

Even though there were about 5 episodes of naruto filler eps, there were easily 5 weeks within the past half year where no manga chapters were released. Thus cancelling those out anyway.


and now i lost my train of thought.....and have to leave.......so blah

[Ithmatic]

interpolating a lot of data takes into account the averages. If a slow episode happens at the end, it wont affect the line. Using your formula the line MUST pass through the first and last points, and thus is greatly influence by the last point. Taking into account all points, the formula will allow the line to miss the last point, as long as the overall distance to all the points from the line is minimized. I'm just saying if you want to be totally accurate you should take into account all points and do a linear regression (LR) on the data set. That being said, your automatic update tool is a really cool idea, even if you dont use LR. If you want help incorporating LR to your predictor you can find a lot of packages that will do it for you...

[Jessper]

Alright mister perfect, I edited in "to me" my bad. What does each dot represent?

PS Totally accurate is a little grandiose don't you think?

[Assertn]

i agree, jessper

[Ithmatic]

Yeah you're right, "totally accurate" is the wrong term...sorry wasn't really careful with my language.

[Ithmatic]

Each dot represents:

-a release of a volume for the manga
-an episode of the anime that matches up with the end of a volume release for the anime.

[Jessper]

and the y-axis is manga volume # right? Shouldn't each dot be higher then the last one then? I have never looked into the manga at all so perhaps this is why I don't understand the graph...

[Jaredster]

Masashi Kishimoto may just have to pick up the pace on the mangas and/or the anime will have to slow down a bit.

[Assertn]

I knew there was a flaw in your graph, but it didnt occur to me until just now what it actually was......
you're interpolating outliers for the anime, but not for the manga. Because of this, it seems that the anime is catching up at a faster rate than it actually is.

As of right now, you're averaging in the weeks where no naruto manga is released, thus the overall slope of the manga line permanently decreases everytime that happens. What should happen, is that the line shifts to the right whenever a week is skipped, while maintaining the same slope.

[Psyke]

Originally posted by: Jaredster
Masashi Kishimoto may just have to pick up the pace on the mangas and/or the anime will have to slow down a bit.

The anime will definately have to slow down, as it is based on the manga and vice versa. ForKishimoto his priority will have to be the manga, as that's his job. He doesn't have to do anything for the anime every week.

[Ithmatic]

Jessper: Each dot should be greater than or equal to the previous one. This is because these are volume releases, and they're not released every month.

Assertn: I'm interpolating the manga the same way I'm interpolating the anime. If you're talking about the chapters, then yeah, that's a problem, since I'm not incorporating chapter data, only volume releases of the manga. However, this should be averaged out in the long run in how fast the story progresses in the manga. Ideally I'd want the chapter release dates (currently I'm assuming each chapter was released 2 months before each volume release since that's what the current gap was when I made it), but I dont have access to those dates. Only the volume ones.

[Ithmatic]

Oh Assertn, I thought about your comment a bit and I understand what you mean now about averaging in the months when no manga volume is released. I agree that it's shiftng the line too much to the right. I'll try and fix that for the next update, thanks.

Warning from the real mods: Use the edit button next time. Please do not double post.

GotWoot Moderator

[Lefty]

STOP DOUBLE POSTING FOR THE FUCKING LOVE OF GOD!!!!!!! i/expressions/face-icon-small-mad.gif Use the edit button. If you keep it up you'll be banned.

[Assertn]

i wouldnt mess with lefty if i were you.....he has swords

[GhostKaGe]

first thing is for master pie never to use the word "super" again

i don't think it'll catch the manga not with the inevitable filler saga probably show a 6 episode montage of naruto training