When will the anime tie the manga

[GeninDropout]

This may have been stated before, but I could not find it with search. But here are some interesting calculations I did on anime/mania to correct another post's math.

Given one episode and one anime per week, the anime will be covering the same topic as the manga sometime around the following time:

Anime Ties Manga
Date: Around Two years time. May-July 2006
Episode: Somewhere in the 180s-190s
Chapter: Somewhere between chapter 311 and 330

Now I have heard that the anime is supposed to run for 250 episodes. If this is true then one of three things has to happen:
a. Chapters will begin to be released more than 1 a week
b. Episodes will begin to be released slower than one per week (think reruns).
c. The quality of the episodes will drop.

Which of these three options do you guys think is the most likely?

Reasoning Explained: Ignore this if you hate math
Notes and Assumptions before we begin
1. The manga began sometime in 1999 according to Naruto Fan. Because of this it has been being put out slower than one per week, but one per week as an estimate is close enough.
2. The anime started fourth quarter 2002 and I forget where I heard this, but it has been coming out close to one per week.
3. I read in the naruto mania forum that anime and and manga only have 51 episodes per year because of something called golden week. I am ignoring this because I don't think one week really matters, so all my equations are off by a couple weeks.
4. Obviously previous release rate of the anime / manga have no direct correlation with future release, but it can be used as a good estimate.
5. This calculation is based off episode 85 which roughly corresponds to chapter 148 (just part of it)

A. Episodes per chapter
Episode 17 roughly corresponds to chapter 28 = 1.64 chapters per episode (28 chapter / 17 episode)
Episode 39 rougly corresponds to chapter 68 = 1.74 chapters per episode
Episode 64 roughly corresponds to chapter 107 = 1.67 chapters per episode
Episode 85 roughly corresponds to chapter 148 = 1.74 chapters per episode

Note that throughout the life of the anime, each episode has covered around 1.7 chapters. This will be the number we use.

B. Equations
We want to find the number of weeks before the chapter and the episodes tie. Given 1 episode and one chapter per week and that we are at episode 85 and chapter 217 we have the following equations.

Equation I: tied_episode = weeks_left (episode/week) + 85 episodes
Equation II: tied_chapter = weeks_left (chapter/week) + 217 chapters

Given that there are 1.7 chapters per episodes we have
Equation III: tied_episode * 1.7 (chapters/episode) = tied_chapter

C. Algebra
Given Equation I and III we can modify I so that:
Equation Ib: 1.7(chapter/episode) ((tied_episode) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes))
Multiplying out we get
Equation Ic: tied_chapter = 1.7 weeks_left (chapters/week)+ 145 chapters

Therefore, we can set equation II and Ic equal to each other
Equation IV: 1.7 weeks_left (chapters / week) + 145 chapters = weeks_left(chapter / week) + 217 chapters

Solving, we have:
Equation IVb: .7 weeks_left (chapter / week) = 72 chapters
therefore
weeks_left = 103 weeks = roughly 2 years = summer 2006
Chapter = 217 + 103 = 320
Episode = 85 + 103 weeks = 188

Other Interesting notes:
At the current rate of production, when will the episode cover the same stuff from the current chapter(217)?
Around April of 2005
What episode will that be?
About 130
What Chapter will be out then?
Around 260

Note: Shuriell of the naruto mania forums had a similar post. He comes up with the 1.7 chapters / week equation and has the basics of equations I and II, but the post does not correctly handle terms and I believe the calculations in that post to be incorrect. But he did have some good equation layouts that I followed in my post. To see that thread go here (http://www.narutomania.net/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2025).

Edit: Fixed a point of grammer.

[ShinobiNeko]

Okay, looks like to did a lot of math to figure all that out... anyways i don't really think it would be that there would be more than 1 chapter a week, i think that it's probably hard enough for a manga-ka to do 1 chapter a week

[Uchiha-Itachi]

You go Einstein! i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif

[Assertn]

yep, we went through that in the open discussion already
although i thought it was predicted to be fall of 2005 that they'd catch up

[GeninDropout]

Originally posted by: AssertnFailure
yep, we went through that in the open discussion already
although i thought it was predicted to be fall of 2005 that they'd catch up

I don't think fall of 2005 is correct. If we use one episode and one chapter per week, then in mid october 2005 we will be on:

Chapter: 289
Episode: 156

Given the average rate of 1.7 chapters / episode, then episode 156 will cover the material in chapter 266.
Even if we went with 1.74 chapters / episode, then it would only cover chapter 271.

- GeninDropout

[Pyron]

that was a pretty indepth post. after reading the first few lines..it all sounds good although its too much for me to read.
i was wondering the same thing too but i don't have that much time to research that stuff

[jing]

Well, we are NOT supposed to be discussing about this anyways. If krnbadass was here, he would have closed this thread already.

but good work, it was quite interesting when i read through it. so much spoilage though.

[Jessper]

Originally posted by: jing
Well, we are NOT supposed to be discussing about this anyways. If krnbadass was here, he would have closed this thread already.

but good work, it was quite interesting when i read through it. so much spoilage though.

huh? Spoilage?? As in people may now know that each episode covers 1.7 chapters in the manga, and what chapter the manga is on??? Or that there is a manga that Naruto is based on???? I don't get why it is considered a spoiler, it is relevent to the anime in a large way(just not for some time).

PS that was one heck of a write up for what appears to be your first post lol.

[Assertn]

Originally posted by: GeninDropout


Originally posted by: AssertnFailure
yep, we went through that in the open discussion already
although i thought it was predicted to be fall of 2005 that they'd catch up

I don't think fall of 2005 is correct. If we use one episode and one chapter per week, then in mid october 2005 we will be on:

Chapter: 289
Episode: 156

Given the average rate of 1.7 chapters / episode, then episode 156 will cover the material in chapter 266.
Even if we went with 1.74 chapters / episode, then it would only cover chapter 271.

- GeninDropout

yes well im well aware of finding the intersection of two equations using the 1.7 constant, that was exactly what i did a while back...i was just saying that 2005 is what memory serves i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif

i should go dig up my graphing calculator....

[jing]

Well the mods considered a spoiler, cuz you give the anime readers a hint of how long this anime is still going to last...

[GeninDropout]

Originally posted by: jing
Well the mods considered a spoiler, cuz you give the anime readers a hint of how long this anime is still going to last...

I didn't mean for this to be a spoiler if it is (which I don't think it is because 250 episodes is based on the anime contract, not the manga contract). Knowing that someone is making a miniseries with X amounts of episodes does not spoil the miniseries. Also, any numbers as to episodes are most likely subject to change.

I actually meant to post this in Naruto general when I first posted it, however, and screwed up and clicked on the Naruto forum. Anyway, If the mods consider it a spoiler then I hope they move it there.

- GeninDropout

P.S. Thanks for the compliments Itachi and Jessper

AssertionFailure: It would be cool to see what you come up with when you graph it. I don't think my math is wrong, but it could be and we could be using different assumptions.=P If your thread is still up I will link to it if you want.

[orn210]

when tha anime catches up to hte manga i wonder what'll happen prolly a filler arc or two...... or some time of break

[Assertn]

nah dont worry about it, the thread's long gone anyway

jing what are you talking about? hinting at the length of the anime series is not a spoiler of the plot itself in any way....thats goin a little overboard
besides...the manga is still coming out each week, so we have no idea when it will end either...in fact this topic isnt even ABOUT when the anime will end, its about when the anime would catch up to the manga at the current rate they are going at

[jing]

sigh whatever, ill let what the mods deal with this. like they always had been.

[Krbadass]

Well, id close this because its an absolutely pointless thread, but beings as no one posts anymore i might as well leave it open.

[Stoopider]

Originally posted by: jing
Well the mods considered a spoiler, cuz you give the anime readers a hint of how long this anime is still going to last...

It's not a spoiler. Why would it be considered one??

I doubt the anime would catch up to the manga. If I was Kishimoto I would leave some breathing space for improvement. The manga would either quicken it's pace, or the anime slow's down it's pace (More evil flashbacks)....

Or worse, probably we might have a season off from Naruto. i/expressions/brokenheart.gif

[Zabuza No Jutsu]

Hey, alls that i can say is i'm sure as hell glad that we're looking at a minimum of like 2 more years of Anime...i'm addicted to it lol I was thinking(before this post) "OMG what if they stop the anime like end of the year cos it's 2 episode per anime" But now that you've provided the 1.7 constant, i feel better. Thanks man! I just hope Kishimoto keeps pumping out storylines in the anime, cos ultimately (and here's MY equation) More Manga = More Anime = More Fun for mee!

[Xollence]

Originally posted by: Krbadass
Well, id close this because its an absolutely pointless thread, but beings as no one posts anymore i might as well leave it open.

It's not a pointless thread, it's pretty interesting. Maybe that's one of the reasons people don't post anymore, because everything gets locked up and discourages new users from posting.

[Zabuza No Jutsu]

Originally posted by: Xollence


Originally posted by: Krbadass
Well, id close this because its an absolutely pointless thread, but beings as no one posts anymore i might as well leave it open.

It's not a pointless thread, it's pretty interesting. Maybe that's one of the reasons people don't post anymore, because everything gets locked up and discourages new users from posting.

ooo go xollence lol...i must agree with you though. It's pretty interesting to find out cool tidbits like that

[kawarimi]

Yep all your answers are correct (besides rounding that could make it 1 off), but Equation Ib


Equation Ib: 1.7(chapter/episode) ((tied_episode) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes))
should be
tied_chapter / (1.7 chapter/episode) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes)

And just to make it less confusing,


Equation III: tied_episode * 1.7 (chapters/episode) = tied_chapter
in this equation, chapters/episode is just a unit. so a simpler Equation III is
Equation III: tied_chapter = 1.7 * tied_episode

[Assertn]

ah yes he does have a point...i didnt really bother to look at your equations, but with what you originally had, you're making the left side equal chapters, while the right side equal episodes

[GeninDropout]

Originally posted by: kawarimi
Yep all your answers are correct (besides rounding that could make it 1 off), but Equation Ib


Equation Ib: 1.7(chapter/episode) ((tied_episode) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes))
should be
tied_chapter / (1.7 chapter/episode) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes)

And just to make it less confusing,


Equation III: tied_episode * 1.7 (chapters/episode) = tied_chapter
in this equation, chapters/episode is just a unit. so a simpler Equation III is
Equation III: tied_chapter = 1.7 * tied_episode

Thank you for the post, but I disagree with your third point. In my opinion Equation III (and all the equations) suffers more from a lack of terms than too many.

Let's replace tied_episode with E and tied_chapter with C to make it less confusing (which is why I didn't add these terms in the first place, because I think letters scare off non-mathematicians).

If we added all the terms, it would read:
Equation III: E episodes * 1.7 (chapters / episodes) = C chapters
or
Equation IIIb: C chapters = 1.7E chapters

This is not the same as C = 1.7E, since C = 1.7E implies C chapters = 1.7E episodes and then the units would not cancel out. If you look at the post I link to in my first post, you will find that the original author made mistakes because he fails to accurately handle units.

In high school, my advanced chemistry teacher was a stickler to make sure that we tracked each unit and in college this ability gave me a HUGE advantage on tests. In fact, I think making sure units convert properly is the key to success at applying math skills to science. I am not the brightest of people and definitely not the most dillegent, but I was able to get a couple standard deviations above the mean on many tests just simply because a lot of problems solve themselves if you are anal with your unit conversion. If I posted C = 1.7E, even though in essence that is correct, I feel like I would be setting up some of the young students who read this post to fail in college level math or science.

As for your second point, I agree that your method is more clear than multiplying both sides of equation 1 by 1.7 (chapters / episodes). To do this we would have to modify Equation III still further and write:

Equation IIIc: E episodes = C chapters / 1.7 (chapters / episodes) = C / 1.7 episodes.

Let's do some more math to see how the terms cancel out. It is always fun.=P
Replacing E episodes in Equation Ib like you do we have:

Equation Ib: C chapters / 1.7 (chapters / episodes) = (weeks_left) (episode/week)+(85 episodes)

Multiplying 1.7 (chapters / episodes to both sides we have:
Equation Ibi: C chapters = 1.7weeks_left (episode / week) (chapter / episode) + 1.7 * 85 episodes (chapter / episode)

When we cancel out terms we get Equation Ic.

As for the rounding error. The reason I am not trying too hard with rounding is because the 1.7 constant varies so much during the season. I would say any calculation we make will probably be off by an error of at least three months on either side of the date.

Thanks for the comments.=P
Genin_Dropout

[GeninDropout]

Originally posted by: AssertnFailure
ah yes he does have a point...i didnt really bother to look at your equations, but with what you originally had, you're making the left side equal chapters, while the right side equal episodes

If you are refering to equation Ib, I don't think it is imbalanced because the 1.7 (chapters/episode) is being multiplied by the entire equation. It may be confusing, however, to bracket an entire equation in type because I cannot make the brackets big enough to make it immedietly clear that the entire equation is being bracketed.

If you are referring to equation III, then I agree with you. I am guilty of not including the units. In my head I was making tied_chapters = tied_chapters chapters and tied_episodes = tied_episodes episodes. That is why I needed the conversion.

I took them out of the equation originaly because I didn't want to make it so long and did not want to reduce tied_chapters or tied_episodes to letters. I guess I was being hypocritical and am guilty of the same error I talk about in the post above.=P

I still would not want to change it to tied_chapter = 1.7 tied_episodes though unless I made it: tied_chapter chapters = 1.7 tied_episodes chapters.

[Assertn]

ok now that i look at it.....you just did it a really weird way....

you tried to match the left side of equation I to look like the left side of equation III so you could convert it to tied_chapter

what i wouldve done was just convert the tied_chapter in equation II to the left side of equation III

gahh the ghettoness hurts my brain i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif

[kawarimi]

ahh i see... yeah usually i wouldn't expect an entire equation to be in a bracket. i thought the bracket was a typo.

i agree, units are important, but they make the expression too large. if it was written by hand the layout would be neater. When all your units for variables are defined, and you know what you're doing, you can leave them out, and maybe use it to check later. This is more important in mathematics because it takes too long to write it out, and there will be no confusion between units anyway, but it helps in chemistry where there are many different units in one equation and it's easy to get them mixed up.

[yvliew]

LOL.. are you that crazy about Naruto???? Just watch it everyweek. hahahaha.... I just found it very funny... sorry.....LOL.....So how about some science now??????? AahhahAhah

[Assertn]

Originally posted by: yvliew
LOL.. are you that crazy about Naruto???? Just watch it everyweek. hahahaha.... I just found it very funny... sorry.....LOL.....So how about some science now??????? AahhahAhah

people like us who find amusement in using math to figure out questions in everyday life look at comments like yours and shake our head in pity i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif

[Krbadass]

Originally posted by: Xollence


Originally posted by: Krbadass
Well, id close this because its an absolutely pointless thread, but beings as no one posts anymore i might as well leave it open.

It's not a pointless thread, it's pretty interesting. Maybe that's one of the reasons people don't post anymore, because everything gets locked up and discourages new users from posting.

Actually, i just find it pointless, but threads like this don't get locked.. I don't know what your talking about but go ahead and go on about when the anime ties the manga..

[Assertn]

its not pointless though, because what will the anime do when it reaches the manga? ive heard that this is a dilemma that ruined the rurouni kenshin anime series, since the stories just end up branching away from each other

[Gods_Son]

Figuring out something like this seems like a waste of time, but I'm sure people are interested in knowing. They will probably have a plan worked out though, so I'd rather just wait to see what happens.

[ShinobiNeko]

Assertn that is what happened with Rurouni Kenshin..anime caught up with the manga, and then the rest was just made up junk..well you guys like comming up with when it will reach..that's cool if you want to do that (too much math for me ^^) just that, knowing when it will won't change the face that it will catch up and don't know where it will go from there

[Assertn]

you have to be a person who enjoys solving logical scenarios to understand why someone would go through the work
sometimes things like that would linger in my head if i dont go and solve it.......besides, we arent trying to find solutions, just discuss the scenario
just like how we can discuss that the idea of introducing a new character and saga into the series could be the producer's solution to this upcoming situation

[ShinobiNeko]

well yeah have to be someone who likes solving logical scenarios.. so that's why you guys have this thread to go ahead and do that ^_^